Why analysts are confident BOCHK's loan growth will dip below average

But forecast is still raised.

According to Maybank Kim Eng, they believe loan growth of BOC(Hong Kong) (BOCHK) will remain lower than the market average (+17.8% YoY in Oct 2012) to avoid a shortage of liquidity.

Still, with continued strong demand for trade finance, we raise our loan growth forecast from 10.9% YoY to 13.7% YoY for 2013.

Here's more from Maybank Kim Eng:

The pipeline for the renewal of cross-border corporate working and manufacturing loans (mainly for the expansion of production capacity) in early 2014 should remain solid.

We maintain our loan growth forecast of 11% YoY for 2014. BOCHK will continue to shift from low-yield government paper to high-yield corporate bonds in 2014.

It will also lengthen the duration of its RMB-denominated assets. This should help offset the slight rise in HKD funding costs. We maintain our net interest margin forecast of 1.68-1.69% for 2013-14 (1.67% for 1H13).