
Which Singapore bank will benefit the most from a Fed rate hike?
Its net profit could rise 1.7%.
According to RHB Research, 3Q16 NIMs were generally narrower QoQ. Soft Singapore interest rates contributed to the margins squeeze. Expectations are for a continued soft SIBOR and Singapore Swap Offer Rate (SOR) in 4Q16.
Here's more from RHB Research:
However, with the impending US federal funds rate (FFR) hike, we believe domestic interest rates would be on an uptrend, and this ought to help widen banks’ FY17 NIMs.
DBS’s NIMs expected to widen the most between 2015-2017. We have factored in a widening of NIMs (from FY15-17) of 5bps for DBS, 4bps for OCBC and 1bp for UOB. DBS is a key beneficiary of rising Singapore interest rates as its SGD current account, savings account (CASA) to total deposit is a high 88%.
DBS earnings most sensitive to a SIBOR rise. For every 10bps rise in SIBOR, our sensitivity analysis shows that DBS’ net profit would rise 1.7%. By comparison, OCBC and UOB’s would rise by 0.8% and 1.2% respectively.